Manager, Business Intelligence (Outlook & Scenario Planning)

Job purpose

Lead long-term market, demand, supply and profitability outlooks to inform strategic planning, capital allocation and business growth strategies, and safeguard long-term value by preparing ADNOC Gas for uncertainty and multiple future worlds.

Key accountabilities

• Lead long-term market, demand, supply and profitability outlooks that feed the strategic plan and capital allocation.
• Develop macroeconomic and sector-level scenario models evaluating future energy trends, risks and opportunities under multiple transition pathways.
• Perform integrated portfolio and P&L stress-testing to assess ADNOC Gas’s resilience and agility under different market and policy environments.
• Lead initial high-level financial and economic modelling (CAPEX, NPV, IRR, sensitivities) for new growth opportunities, ensuring alignment with corporate value-creation targets.
• Assess external and internal strategic drivers and translate their implications into actionable insight for the long-term strategic plan.
• Interface with ADNOC Upstream and DM&T on plans, profiles and demand forecasts, and assess the impact of Gas Masterplan alignment.
• Build, lead and develop the business intelligence and scenario planning team, with emphasis on UAE National development in line with Emiratisation targets.
• Build a credible long-range outlook capability from a standing start, in a first-of-its-kind function, while the IGP operating model is still being stood up.
• Produce outlooks that remain robust across 5 to 25 years without drifting into unusable theory – every scenario must translate into a decision signal.
• Hold the boundary with the Planning & Value Chain Optimization mandate: this role uses portfolio results for stress-testing; it does not optimize assets.
• Secure consistent input data and assumptions from ADNOC Upstream, DM&T, Marketing and Finance across entity boundaries.
• Earn executive trust fast – outputs go directly to EXCOM and the CEO dialogue with ADNOC.
• Develop one agreed set of long-term outlook assumptions used across ADNOC Gas, replacing competing versions.
• Develop a living scenario model that senior leadership actually runs decisions through.
• Develop early-warning signals and strategic guardrails accepted and used by the other IGP mandates.
• Develop strong influence without authority across divisions and group entities.
• Develop a high-calibre team and ensure retention of the team.

Minimum requirements

Bachelor’s degree with 12 or more years of experience, with at least 5 in long-range outlook, scenario planning, business intelligence or corporate and strategic planning in oil and gas, LNG, petrochemicals or energy consulting. Prior line-management experience required.

• Long-term outlook & scenario modelling – proven ownership of 5 to 25 year market, demand, supply and price outlooks and multi-pathway scenario sets used for real corporate decisions.
• Gas / LNG / NGL value chain depth – genuine command of gas and LNG market structure, contracting and the economics that move them.
• Financial & economic modelling – CAPEX, NPV, IRR, sensitivities and P&L stress-testing at portfolio level; able to build and defend the model, not just read it.
• Executive communication – track record of turning analysis into board and EXCOM-ready recommendations; excellent structured written and spoken English.
• Cross-functional influence & team leadership – evidence of securing data, assumptions and alignment across divisions and separate legal entities without direct authority, plus building and developing a specialist team.